In our latest post, we dive into the mechanics behind the Santa Claus Rally and what drives year-end market trends. We also take a closer look at how the markets are reacting to the election, along with the latest economic data and insights from RQA’s forecast model to gauge where near-term growth is headed.
With the 2024 presidential election approaching and markets closely watching each development, our latest update dives into how election cycles historically impact equity markets and what current dynamics may mean for investors. We analyze pre- and post-election S&P 500 performance, examine volatility trends through the VIX, and consider the implications of rising interest rates and bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index. RQA’s Economic Forecast Model is also showing signs of positive stabilization, but with the election adding uncertainty, volatility remains a key factor in the near-term outlook.
The Federal Reserve has initiated its rate-cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction, and markets are adjusting accordingly. In our latest update, we analyze how this shift is impacting risk assets, explore the broader economic outlook, and examine the implications of further rate cuts. RQA's Economic Forecast Model has shown its first positive shift in months, signaling potential stabilization, but volatility remains a key factor moving forward.
This month's economic update shifts our focus to the VIX, often referred to as the equity market's fear gauge. We delve into historical trends, explain how to derive implied market moves from the VIX, and explore its relationship with broader equity market shifts. In addition, we incorporate the latest updates from the Fed and insights from our internal economic growth forecast. Our analysis is framed within the broader economic quadrant framework, which evaluates shifts in growth and inflation dynamics.
This month’s economic update focuses on the U.S. labor market, key supply and demand metrics, and recent trends in the data. As we approach the potential for a reduction in the key interest rate, we provide an updated analysis from the RQA economic model, offering insights into near-term growth prospects and the current economic regime. Additionally, we review the latest developments in growth and inflation and examine our position within the economic quadrant analysis.
This month's economic update spotlights U.S. equity concentration risk, exploring current levels and their future implications. We examine how the dominance of a few large companies is shaping the broader market and its impact on investors. Additionally, we provide an updated analysis from the RQA economic model, offering insights into near-term growth prospects and the current economic regime. We also review the latest updates from the Federal Reserve and provide an overview of our growth and inflation quadrant analysis.
This month's insights explore expectations around U.S. inflation and intuitive ways to assess near-term estimates based on market-implied methods. We examine these methods historically and analyze what they may suggest today. Additionally, we review the latest model update concerning the current state of the U.S. economy from a growth perspective. Finally, we conclude with an update on the latest discussions from the Federal Reserve and an overview of our growth and inflation quadrant analysis.
This month's analysis focuses on the recent trends in corporate bond spreads. We explore the implications of the narrowing spreads and what this means for the premium that investors might receive when taking on additional credit risk. Additionally, we provide an update on the current state of the U.S. economy from a growth perspective, drawing insights from the RQA economic model. Lastly, we conclude with an update on our growth and inflation quadrant analysis.
In this month's economic update, we revisit U.S. interest rate data, placing particular emphasis on the ongoing yield curve inversion. We delve into the historical occurrences of inversions and analyze the average duration of such events. Furthermore, we update our examination of leading economic indicators and the RQA economic model to gain insights into our current position in terms of near-term growth prospects.
Our latest review provides a fresh take on the current trajectory of residential real estate permits. We probe into the latest data, take a look at long term trends and how they overlap with general economic growth conditions. Moreover, we assess the leading economic indicators that are driving an upward trend in the RQA Forecast Model. Wrapping up our analysis, we contemplate the economy's current state from the perspective of growth and inflation, offering insights into the overarching economic conditions.
